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Research

MorMag believes rigorous research is the foundation of effective capital allocation. Our analysis combines macroeconomic insight, company-level fundamentals, and long-term structural thinking to identify opportunities across global markets.

Featured Research

Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

When Markets Switch Between Geometric Brownian Motion and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes

Financial markets exhibit behaviour consistent with multiple stochastic processes. Geometric Brownian Motion and the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process represent two fundamental modes: trend and equilibrium. At MorMag, this perspective informs a disciplined approach that integrates probabilistic inference, structural understanding, and adaptability.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Stochastic Volatility Models (II)

Stochastic volatility models provide a powerful framework for representing the dynamic nature of risk in financial markets. By treating volatility as a stochastic process, they capture key features such as clustering, persistence, and asymmetry. At MorMag, this approach forms part of a broader framework for analysing markets, integrating quantitative modelling with contextual understanding.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Geometric Brownian Motion vs Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process

Geometric Brownian Motion and the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process represent two fundamentally different approaches to modelling financial dynamics. One captures persistent trend and unbounded movement. The other captures equilibrium behaviour and mean reversion. At MorMag, this distinction forms part of a broader analytical philosophy that views markets as dynamic systems characterised by changing structures and shifting behavioural regimes.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

The Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process

The Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process offers a powerful framework for modelling mean-reverting behaviour in financial markets. By combining deterministic drift toward a mean with stochastic fluctuations, it captures the essential features of many economic and financial variables. At MorMag, this framework forms part of a broader approach to analysing markets, integrating mathematical structure with contextual understanding.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

The Central Limit Theorem

The Central Limit Theorem is a cornerstone of statistical theory and a key foundation for quantitative finance. It explains how aggregation can lead to convergence toward a normal distribution, providing a basis for modelling and inference. At MorMag, the CLT is integrated into a broader framework that recognises both its utility and its limitations.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

The Delta–Gamma Risk Surface

The Delta–Gamma risk surface provides a structured framework for understanding the non-linear behaviour of derivative positions. By capturing how sensitivity evolves across different levels of the underlying asset, it reveals the geometry of risk embedded within options. At MorMag, this perspective informs a disciplined approach to derivative analysis, integrating mathematical insight with practical understanding.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Robust Portfolio Optimisation

Robust portfolio optimisation provides a framework for constructing portfolios that account for uncertainty and estimation error. By incorporating variability into the optimisation process, it reduces sensitivity to inputs and enhances stability. At MorMag, this perspective informs a disciplined approach to portfolio construction, emphasising resilience, adaptability, and clarity of thought.

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Quant Lab & Research Infrastructure Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quant Lab & Research Infrastructure Thomas Morgan-Magraw

The Live OHLCV Theorem

The Live OHLCV Theorem formalises a fundamental distinction in market analysis. Completed OHLCV data represents a fixed record of past activity. Live OHLCV data represents an evolving process whose final state is uncertain until the period closes. At MorMag, this perspective informs a disciplined approach to analysis, in which data is understood not as a static object, but as a dynamic expression of interaction and uncertainty.

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Behavioural Finance & Psychology Thomas Morgan-Magraw Behavioural Finance & Psychology Thomas Morgan-Magraw

The Greater Fool Theory

The Greater Fool Theory provides a lens through which to understand periods of speculative pricing in financial markets. At MorMag, this perspective informs a disciplined approach to market analysis, in which speculative dynamics are recognised, interpreted, and evaluated within the broader context of uncertainty and system behaviour.

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Risk & Uncertainty & Fragility Thomas Morgan-Magraw Risk & Uncertainty & Fragility Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Foresight and Prediction Markets

Foresight and prediction markets provide a framework for understanding how markets form expectations about the future. By aggregating information through trading, they transform individual beliefs into collective probabilities. At MorMag, this perspective informs a disciplined approach to market analysis, in which prices are interpreted not only as measures of value, but as expressions of belief.

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Behavioural Finance & Psychology Thomas Morgan-Magraw Behavioural Finance & Psychology Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Intertemporal Choice

Intertemporal choice is central to financial markets. It reflects how participants evaluate trade-offs between present and future outcomes, incorporating preferences, uncertainty, and behavioural dynamics. At MorMag, this perspective informs a disciplined approach to decision-making, in which time, uncertainty, and adaptation are considered together.

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