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Research

MorMag believes rigorous research is the foundation of effective capital allocation. Our analysis combines macroeconomic insight, company-level fundamentals, and long-term structural thinking to identify opportunities across global markets.

Featured Research

Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

State-Space Models and Hidden Financial Systems

State-space models provide a framework for understanding financial systems in which the variables that drive observed market behaviour cannot be directly observed, but must instead be inferred from imperfect and noisy data. At MorMag, we view markets as complex adaptive systems whose underlying regimes, conditions, and structural dynamics are often hidden beneath observable prices and returns, making inference as important as measurement.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Gamma and Additive Processes

Gamma and additive processes provide powerful mathematical frameworks for modelling the accumulation of random change, particularly where uncertainty evolves through positive increments, jumps, and variable rates over time. At MorMag, we use stochastic processes as a way of understanding markets as dynamic systems in which uncertainty accumulates, compounds, and occasionally changes abruptly.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Wiener and Poisson Processes

Wiener and Poisson processes form two of the most important building blocks of modern stochastic modelling, providing mathematical frameworks for understanding continuous uncertainty and discrete events. At MorMag, we view both as essential tools for understanding how uncertainty, information, and market dynamics unfold through time.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Lévy Processes and the Limits of Gaussian Markets

Lévy processes represent one of the most important advances in modern financial modelling because they acknowledge that price movements are not always smooth and risk is not always normally distributed. At MorMag, markets are viewed not as smooth equilibrium machines but as evolving adaptive systems operating under persistent uncertainty.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Why Most Backtests Fail

Most backtests fail because they mistake historical fit for future predictive power. At MorMag, backtesting is viewed as a process of hypothesis testing, stress testing, and intellectual scepticism. Historical analysis remains valuable, but only when combined with economic reasoning, robustness testing, and an understanding of market structure.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Information Theory for Investors

Information Theory provides one of the most powerful frameworks available for understanding financial markets because it addresses the fundamental currency of investing: information. At MorMag, this perspective forms part of a broader investment philosophy grounded in probabilistic reasoning, complexity science, adaptive markets, and rigorous research.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Optimal Stopping Theory and Investment Decisions

Optimal Stopping Theory provides one of the most elegant frameworks available for understanding investment timing and decision-making under uncertainty. At MorMag, this perspective forms part of a broader investment philosophy grounded in probabilistic reasoning, adaptive thinking, behavioural awareness, and expected value maximisation.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Entropy as a Financial Signal

Entropy as a financial signal provides a powerful framework for measuring uncertainty, informational complexity, and structural organisation within financial markets. At MorMag, this perspective forms part of a broader quantitative philosophy grounded in complexity science, adaptive systems thinking, probabilistic reasoning, and structural market analysis.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Random Matrix Theory in Financial Markets

Random Matrix Theory provides one of the most powerful tools available for distinguishing genuine information from statistical noise within financial markets. At MorMag, this perspective forms part of a broader quantitative philosophy grounded in probabilistic reasoning, adaptive systems thinking, and rigorous signal validation.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Cross-Sectional Mean Reversion Engines

Cross-sectional mean reversion engines provide a sophisticated framework for identifying relative dislocations within evolving financial systems. At MorMag, this perspective forms part of a broader adaptive quantitative framework grounded in probabilistic reasoning, behavioural analysis, and systems-level interpretation.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Order Flow Toxicity Models

Order flow toxicity models provide a powerful framework for understanding the interaction between information asymmetry, liquidity provision, and market fragility. At MorMag, this perspective forms part of a broader approach to quantitative finance grounded in adaptive systems thinking, market microstructure analysis, and probabilistic interpretation.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Hidden Markov Model Regime Detection

Hidden Markov Model regime detection provides a powerful framework for understanding financial markets as evolving systems operating across hidden states. At MorMag, Hidden Markov Models contribute to a broader adaptive intelligence framework designed to navigate these evolving structures with probabilistic reasoning and structural awareness.

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Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw Quantitative Research & Systems Thomas Morgan-Magraw

Space Colonisation Algorithms in Quantitative Finance

Space colonisation algorithms provide a powerful conceptual framework for understanding adaptive exploration and resource allocation in complex environments. At MorMag, this perspective informs a disciplined approach to strategy development and capital allocation, integrating quantitative tools with an understanding of growth and adaptation.

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Investment Research - Asset Management - Strategic Capital Allocation